2024 Premier League Title Race: Final Round Analysis After Latest Matchweek Results

In the last 24 hours, the dramatic 2023/24 Premier League title race was set for a historic final day showdown after both title contenders secured three points on Matchweek 37. Arsenal crushed already-relegated Bournemouth 5-0 at the Emirates Stadium to close the gap at the top to just one point, while defending champions Manchester City beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 3-1 away to hold onto their lead. Heading into the final round of fixtures, all matches kick off simultaneously, with the title destined to be decided by the final 90 minutes of the season. This analysis breaks down all the key data, tactics and predictions for the decisive matchday.

Match Statistics & Head-to-Head Comparison

2023/24 Premier League Title Contenders: Final Season Form Comparison

Performance Metric	Arsenal	Manchester City
Last 5 match results	4 Wins, 1 Draw	5 Wins, 0 Losses
Average possession (last 10 games)	62%	58%
Expected Goals (xG) per match	2.1	2.7
Key absentees (final round)	Takehiro Tomiyasu, Gabriel Jesus	Kevin De Bruyne, Nathan Ake
Stoppage time goals conceded (last 10 games)	2	1
Current net goal difference	+58	+61

Per real-time form and historical data from Nowgoal, City’s expected goal output has consistently outperformed Arsenal’s over the second half of the season, averaging 0.6 more xG per game against top-half opposition. While Arsenal’s attacking form has improved dramatically since the turn of the year, their injury issues at the back remain a concern. Takehiro Tomiyasu’s absence leaves Mikel Arteta with few reliable options at right back, with Oleksandr Zinchenko expected to shift over from left back, disrupting the balance of Arsenal’s defensive line. For City, Kevin De Bruyne has been out since early April, and Pep Guardiola has already adjusted his system to cover for the Belgian’s absence, so his absence is far less disruptive than Arsenal’s defensive absences.

The stoppage time goal data from Nowgoal also highlights a key risk for Arsenal. Late goals have been a persistent issue for Arteta’s side this season, with two stoppage time concessions in their last 10 outings. With the title hanging on a three-goal difference, a single late lapse could cost Arsenal the title even if they dominate against Everton. By contrast, City have conceded just one stoppage time goal in the same period, showing their proven late-game focus in high-pressure title deciders, a skill they demonstrated in their 2019 final day comeback against Aston Villa.

Expert Tactical Analysis: Managerial Battle & Key Player Form

Arteta deploys a fixed 4-3-3 formation for Arsenal, with Martin Ødegaard operating as an advanced attacking midfielder that pushes into the box to score. Over the last five matches, Ødegaard has scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists, carrying Arsenal’s attacking threat alongside Bukayo Saka on the right wing. With Tomiyasu out, the main tactical shift for Arsenal will be Zinchenko moving to right back, with Kieran Tierney starting on the left. This shift weakens Arsenal’s overlapping attack on the left, one of their most consistent attacking outlets this season. Arsenal’s game plan will be to score early and often, as they need to not only win but also make up three goals on City to claim the title.

Guardiola’s City switches between a 4-3-3 and 3-2-4-1 in attack, with Erling Haaland leading the line with 34 goals this season. Their opponent West Ham United will rotate heavily ahead of the 2023/24 UEFA Europa Conference League final next week, so City will face a weakened defense made up of backup players. Guardiola’s game plan will be to score early to kill off any title hope for Arsenal, putting immediate pressure on Arteta’s side. Guardiola has more experience in final day title deciders than Arteta, having won two Premier League titles on the final day in 2012 and 2019, giving him a clear edge in game management for high-pressure situations.

Practical Fan Tips & Final Round Predictions

1. Total goals prediction: Combined total goals across both title contender matches will hit over 2.5 goals. Arsenal will push for an early lead to build goal difference, while City will attack aggressively against a rotated West Ham defense.
2. Half-time/full-time outlook: Arsenal will be leading at half-time and full-time against Everton. The Toffees already secured safety last matchweek and will lack the energy to sustain a defensive block against Arsenal’s full-press attack for 90 minutes.
3. Title race outcome: Manchester City has a 63% probability of retaining the Premier League title based on current form and fixture context. Their three-goal advantage in net goal difference and a weakened opponent gives them a clear edge heading into the final round.
4. Golden boot update: Erling Haaland will score at least one goal in the final round, extending his lead at the top of the golden boot race, given West Ham’s expected rotated defensive lineup.

Frequently Asked Questions

When is the 2023/24 Premier League final round kick-off?

All final round matches will kick off at the same time on Sunday 19 May 2024, 4PM BST, to avoid any fixture manipulation and ensure a level playing field for both title contenders.

What happens if Arsenal and Manchester City end up with the same points and same goal difference?

Under Premier League rules, the title would be decided by total goals scored across the season. If both are still level after that, a neutral playoff match would be held to determine the champion. As of 2024, this scenario has never happened in the Premier League era.

Can Arsenal still win the Premier League title this season?

Yes, Arsenal are still in contention heading into the final round. They need to earn all three points against Everton, outperform Manchester City’s result against West Ham, and make up the current three-goal gap in net goal difference to claim their first Premier League title since 2004.