2024–25 Premier League: Post-Match Deep Dive of Liverpool’s Late 1-0 Merseyside Derby Win

Match Statistics & Head-to-Head Comparison

2024–25 Premier League Liverpool vs Everton: Pre-Match & In-Match Core Stats

Performance Metric	Liverpool	Everton
Last 5 Premier League results	4W 1D 0L	1W 2D 2L
Average possession per game (last 10)	61%	37%
Big chances created per game (last 10)	4.8	1.2
Key injury absentees pre-match	1 (Alisson Becker)	3 (Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Amadou Onana, Vitaliy Mykolenko)
Pre-match probability of stoppage time goal	42%	21%
Clean sheet rate (last 10 games)	60%	20%
Goals conceded from set pieces (2024/25)	3	11

All real-time pre-match odds and historical performance metrics used in this analysis are sourced from Nowgoal, a platform that delivers updated, reliable data for global football fans across Southeast Asia. The gulf in possession and chance creation visible in the table is not an anomaly for this fixture: Arne Slot’s side has dominated territory against all bottom-half opponents this season, using their high-intensity press to force an average of 11.7 turnovers in the attacking third per game, three times the rate Everton manage. The pre-match 42% probability of a late Liverpool goal aligned perfectly with Darwin Núñez’s 89th-minute match-winning header, proving that recent form data holds strong predictive power for Premier League fixtures.

Everton’s defensive weaknesses are even more clear when examining the set piece concession data highlighted by Nowgoal’s season tracker. Only Luton Town (12) has conceded more goals from dead-ball situations than Sean Dyche’s side this term, a trend that has persisted across three consecutive seasons. Even with an expanded back five to defend crosses and corners, Everton failed to mark Núñez on the game-winning set piece, a mistake that fits the consistent defensive pattern that has plagued their 2024–25 campaign.

Expert Tactical Analysis

The tactical battle for this Merseyside derby pitted Arne Slot’s aggressive 4-3-3 against Sean Dyche’s conservative 5-4-1 low block, a matchup that has become common when relegation-threatened sides face top title contenders this season. Slot’s key adjustment ahead of the game was pushing full-backs Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson wider than usual, stretching Everton’s five-man back line to create gaps between central defenders and wide wing-backs. This adjustment forced Everton’s wing-backs to constantly track back, draining their energy in the second half and leaving central defenders outnumbered in the box for crosses.

Dyche’s game plan relied on stopping Liverpool’s wide play and hitting quick counter-attacks through Beto, the side’s only fit senior striker. The plan worked for 88 minutes, as Liverpool wasted several good chances in the first 70 minutes, with Núñez missing a one-on-one opportunity in the 32nd minute. Dyche’s decision to switch to a 4-4-2 in the 75th minute to chase a surprise equalizer backfired, as it removed an extra defender from the back line and created more space for Liverpool’s attackers to attack set pieces. Slot’s late substitution of Cody Gakpo for Diogo Jota added extra aerial presence in the box, a move that directly led to Núñez being left unmarked for the winning goal, as Everton defenders had to split their focus between Gakpo’s run and Núñez’s position.

Core player performance backs up this tactical analysis: Núñez finished the game with 0.9 expected goals, three aerial wins in the penalty box, and two key passes, justifying Slot’s decision to start him ahead of Gakpo. On Everton’s side, Beto won only 2 of 12 aerial duels, highlighting how the absences of Calvert-Lewin and Onana left the side without their key physical threats up front.

Practical Fan & Betting Tips

Based on the data and tactical analysis from this derby, here are 4 objective insights for Premier League fans moving forward:

1. Total Goals Prediction: For Liverpool’s next three Premier League fixtures against mid-table opponents (Fulham, Brighton, Bournemouth), expect over 2.5 total goals. Slot’s side average 2.1 goals per game at Anfield, and their attack creates an average of 5 big chances per game, making over 2.5 a high-probability outcome.
2. Half-Time/Full-Time Trend: Liverpool have drawn the first half in 4 of their last 6 games against low-block opponents, before pushing on for a second half win after fatiguing the opposition defense. A Draw/Liverpool half-time/full-time outcome carries consistent value for Liverpool’s upcoming home games against mid-table sides.
3. Set Piece Value: Given Everton’s ongoing struggles defending dead-ball situations, any future fixture involving Everton will carry strong value for a goal from a set piece. 45% of all goals conceded by Everton this season have come from set pieces, a trend that is unlikely to change before the January transfer window.
4. Card Market Insight: Merseyside derbies average 3.2 yellow cards per game, with 68% of all cards coming in the second half as fatigue leads to more aggressive tackling. Expect two or more yellow cards after the 70th minute in any future derby meeting.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the 2024–25 Premier League title race already just between Liverpool and Arsenal?

After 10 matchweeks, Liverpool sit top of the Premier League table with 24 points, one point ahead of Arsenal and three points ahead of defending champions Manchester City. Liverpool’s consistent form and improved depth under Arne Slot make them the clear early title favorites, but Manchester City’s proven track record of strong second-half form means the title race is still very open. Tottenham Hotspur’s strong start also means they remain in contention, so it is too early to narrow the race down to two sides.

What does this Merseyside derby win mean for Liverpool’s title chances?

This win keeps Liverpool two points clear at the top of the table heading into the October international break, and extends their winning streak at Anfield to five games in all competitions. It is also Liverpool’s fourth win in the last five Merseyside derbies in the Premier League, which gives the squad a major confidence boost ahead of a busy December fixture schedule. Late wins like this also build momentum for title pushes, as it shows the squad can still get results even when they are not playing at their best.

Can Everton avoid relegation in the 2024–25 Premier League season?

Everton currently sit 17th in the table with 8 points from 10 games, just one point above the relegation zone. Their defensive record, especially against set pieces, is a major concern, but Sean Dyche’s side have picked up four draws against top-half teams this season, which proves they can take points off good sides. If they can fix their defensive issues on set pieces and get key players back from injury in the next six weeks, they have a strong chance of staying up. If their defensive problems continue, they will face a real battle to avoid relegation.