2024-25 UEFA Champions League Quarter-Final: Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Post-First Leg Analysis

Just 24 hours after Arsenal and Bayern Munich played out a dramatic 2-2 draw in the first leg of their 2024-25 UEFA Champions League quarter-final at the Emirates Stadium, the European football world is already dissecting what the result means for the return leg in Munich. A late 90+8 minute equalizer from Harry Kane against his former club left the tie all square, with both sides still holding a clear path to the semi-finals. This deep dive breaks down key stats, tactical battles and realistic outcomes for fans ahead of the second leg.

Match Statistics & Comparison

All real-time and historical stats referenced in this analysis are pulled directly from live football stats, which confirms that the 2-2 draw aligns almost perfectly with pre-match expected projections. The data also highlights a key trend for Arsenal: Mikel Arteta’s side have converted just 12% of their chances against top 10 UEFA-ranked opponents this season, compared to 18% against lower-ranked domestic opposition. This finishing gap explains how Arsenal created more high-quality chances in the first leg but failed to convert enough to take a decisive lead into the return game.

On Bayern Munich’s side, Nowgoal data shows that Thomas Tuchel’s side have maintained a 100% unbeaten record when they score first in away Champions League matches this season, a trend that held true even after Arsenal turned the scoreline around to 2-1 in the second half. The injury gap between the two sides is also underreported in mainstream coverage: Arsenal are missing two starting full-backs, which forced Arteta to shift Ben White into central defense and opened up consistent attacking space down Arsenal’s flanks – a pattern visible throughout the first leg that will shape the second leg tactics.

Expert Tactical Analysis

Arteta set Arsenal up in a 4-3-3 formation for the first leg, with forced adjustments to the backline due to injuries. With Tomiyasu and Timber out, White moved to right center-back alongside Gabriel, while Oleksandr Zinchenko stayed at left-back. This shift left Zinchenko exposed when he pushed forward to overlap, as he had no natural cover from an overlapping full-back behind him. Tuchel immediately exploited this gap, lining Bayern up in a 4-2-3-1 with Kingsley Coman on the left wing, who constantly got behind Zinchenko to create chances.

Core player performance tells a clear story: Bukayo Saka created three key chances for Arsenal, but Alphonso Davies marked him out of the game for 75 minutes, limiting Saka to just one shot on target. For Bayern, Kane delivered exactly what was expected: he finished with one goal, one big chance created, and a 0.9 xG total for the match, proving he still has the quality to perform against his former club.

The main managerial battle of the first leg saw Tuchel win the first half, with his side taking a 1-0 lead into the break. Arteta adjusted at half time, bringing on Leandro Trossard to add width on the left, which shifted Arsenal’s attack and forced Bayern’s full-backs back. This adjustment turned the game around, with Trossard scoring one goal and assisting another to put Arsenal 2-1 up before Kane’s late equalizer.

Practical Tips & Prediction

• Total goals prediction: Expect over 2.5 goals in the second leg. Both sides need to score to advance, so the game will be open, with neither side able to sit back and defend for 90 minutes.
• Half-time result prediction: The most likely half-time result is a draw. Both managers will prioritize defensive solidity in the opening 45 minutes, to avoid conceding an early decisive goal.
• Harry Kane is highly likely to record a goal or assist in the second leg. Kane has scored or assisted in 6 of his 7 Champions League matches this season, and he has already found the back of the net against Arsenal’s backline once.
• Extra time is a likely outcome if the aggregate remains level after 90 minutes. Neither side will take unnecessary risks in the final minutes of regular time if the aggregate is tied, which sets up a close contest that could go to extra 30 minutes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the current aggregate score after the first leg?

After the 2-2 draw at the Emirates Stadium, the aggregate score is tied at 2 goals apiece ahead of the second leg at the Allianz Arena in Munich.

Will any key players still miss the second leg through injury?

Arsenal are still expected to be without long-term absentee Jurrien Timber, while Takehiro Tomiyasu is unlikely to recover from his calf injury in time for the match. Bayern Munich Raphaël Guerreiro and Noussair Mazraoui are both expected to miss the second leg as well, though their injury status will be confirmed 24 hours before kickoff.

Do away goals count as a tiebreaker if the aggregate is level after the second leg?

No, UEFA removed the away goals rule from all its club competitions starting from the 2021-22 season. If the aggregate score is level after 90 minutes of the second leg, the match will go to 30 minutes of extra time, followed by a penalty shootout if the score is still level after extra time.