2023/24 Premier League Title Race: Final Round Analysis After Arsenal’s Late Win Over Everton

Within the last 24 hours, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal secured a dramatic 2-1 late win over Everton at the Emirates Stadium, keeping their faint Premier League title hopes alive heading into the final matchweek of the 2023/24 season. Arsenal now sit one point behind defending champion Manchester City, who take on West Ham United at the Etihad Stadium on the final day, with the same kickoff time as Arsenal’s trip to Bournemouth. This is set to be one of the most dramatic final round title races in Premier League history, with both teams holding realistic chances to lift the trophy. This analysis breaks down the stats, tactics, and potential outcomes for neutral fans and betting enthusiasts alike.

Match Statistics and Comparison

2023/24 Premier League: Key Stats of Title Contenders (Last 5 Matches)

Statistic	Manchester City	Arsenal
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-0	4-0-1
Average Possession (%)	62	58
Average Expected Goals (xG) per Game	2.7	2.2
Probability of Stoppage Time Over 5 Minutes (%)	72	68
Average Shots on Target per Game	7.8	6.4
Clean Sheet Rate (%)	60	40

The table above highlights the small but meaningful gaps between the two title contenders in their most recent form. According to real-time Premier League statistics from Nowgoal, both title contenders have maintained a 70%+ win rate in their last 10 matches, a level unseen in any previous Premier League title race in the last decade. Manchester City’s higher xG and average shots on target reflect their consistent attacking dominance, even with rotation in midweek ahead of the upcoming FA Cup final. The high probability of long stoppage time for both sides also aligns with the trend of late drama in this season’s title race, with three of Arsenal’s last five wins coming from goals scored after the 85th minute.

What stands out most is Manchester City’s 20% higher clean sheet rate, which has been a key factor in their narrow lead heading into the final week. Pep Guardiola’s side have conceded just two goals in their last five matches, compared to Arsenal’s five, giving them a critical edge in goal difference should both sides finish level on points. Fans can check up-to-date live football data on Nowgoal to track live injury updates and lineups ahead of the final round, as both managers have not yet confirmed their full starting XIs.

Expert Tactical Analysis

Both sides have stuck to their core tactical identities this season, but minor adjustments have put them in position for the final round. Manchester City lines up in a typical 4-3-3 formation, with Rodri holding the midfield to allow Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland to focus on attacking creation and finishing. Haaland has scored 6 goals in his last 5 matches, and has posted 2.8 expected goals per 90 minutes in that stretch, the highest of any Premier League forward this season. Guardiola has rotated his full-backs in recent matches to keep Rico Lewis and Josko Gvardiol fresh, which will be critical against a West Ham side that likes to counter-attack down the flanks.

For Arsenal, Arteta has shifted from his traditional high-pressing 4-3-3 to a more compact 4-2-3-1 in recent away matches, to cut out the defensive errors that cost them points earlier in the season. Declan Rice has dropped deeper alongside Thomas Partey to protect the back four, allowing Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard to push forward on the counter. Saka has created 11 goal-scoring opportunities in his last four matches, more than any other Arsenal player, and Bournemouth’s high defensive line will play directly into his strength of running in behind. The key tactical challenge for Arteta will be managing his high line: if Bournemouth can hit on the counter early, Arsenal could be forced to drop deeper, ceding possession and slowing their attacking tempo.

The biggest managerial game will be timing substitutions. Guardiola has four attacking options available off the bench, including Julian Alvarez who has scored 15 goals across all competitions this season, allowing him to change the shape of the attack if City is stuck at 0-0. Arteta has fewer consistent attacking options off the bench, with Leandro Trossard the only reliable backup, meaning Arsenal will need to get an early goal to open up the game.

Practical Advice and Predictions

1. Total Goals Over 2.5: Over 2.5 goals is the most likely outcome for both final round matches. Manchester City has averaged 3.2 goals per game at home this season, and West Ham has already secured their European place, meaning they are unlikely to park the bus for 90 minutes. Arsenal’s match against Bournemouth also favors goals, as Bournemouth needs a win to avoid relegation, so they will push forward from kickoff.
2. Half-Time Draw Is Highly Likely: Both sides will approach the final round with caution, especially in the opening 45 minutes. Arsenal do not want to concede an early goal that would end their title hopes, while Manchester City will feel comfortable controlling possession rather than forcing chances early. Three of the last four head-to-head matches between City and Arsenal have been level at half-time, and this trend of cautious opening play will extend to the final round.
3. Manchester City Will Win The Title: While Arsenal’s late win kept them in the race, City’s home advantage against West Ham and superior overall form makes them the clear favorite. City have won 17 of their 18 home matches this season, scoring 53 goals at the Etihad, and West Ham has lost 4 of their last 6 away matches against top six sides.
4. Erling Haaland Will Score At Least One Goal: Haaland has scored in 8 of his 9 home matches against bottom-half sides this season, and has a shooting accuracy of 62% in home matches. West Ham’s leaky defense, which concedes 1.3 goals per away game, will struggle to contain him for 90 minutes.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who will win the 2023/24 Premier League title?

Based on current form and fixture advantage, Manchester City is the overwhelming favorite to win a fourth consecutive Premier League title. However, Arsenal still has a realistic chance if City drops points against West Ham and Arsenal wins by a large margin. No team has ever overturned a one-point deficit on the final day of the Premier League era, but that does not mean an upset is impossible.

Can Arsenal overturn Manchester City’s lead in the final round?

Arsenal can only win the title if two results go their way: they must beat Bournemouth, and Manchester City must fail to beat West Ham. If both teams finish on the same number of points, the title is decided by goal difference, and Manchester City currently holds an 8-goal advantage, meaning Arsenal would need to make up that gap on the final day, which is statistically very unlikely.

When does the final round of the 2023/24 Premier League kick off?

All final round matches kick off at the same time: 16:00 BST on Sunday 19 May 2024. This is standard practice for the final round of the Premier League to avoid any team gaining an advantage from knowing the results of other title contenders before their match kicks off.